Stoa
PAPERas of 2026-10-29Live
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| Symbol | Qty | Price | Market value | Today | Today % | Total P/L | Total P/L % |
|---|
No open positions.
Equity vs SPY and MTUM
- Stoa +0.5%
- SPY +1.2%
- MTUM +3.1%
Growth of 100 from 2026-10-23. Stoa is after its own cost model, with deposits and withdrawals taken out.
Positions
No open positions.
Exam progress toward live
- Walk-forwardrun, not passed
- Holdoutnot sealed
- Paper sessions1 of 42
- Paper trades0 of 20
- Paper examnot yet
- Live allowedno
Runs and checks
- Last run
- 2026-10-30 09:45 ET (execute)
- Last DECIDE
- 2026-10-29
- Last EXECUTE
- 2026-10-30
- Dead man's switch
- success ping sent 2026-10-29 17:15 ET
- Kill switch
- off
- Analyst spend
- $0.34 of $25.00 in 2026-10
- Analyst forward test
- 4 of 210 sessions scored since 2026-10-26, last 2026-10-29, shadow only, never traded
- SPY fallback
- off
Trade log
| Date | What | Symbol | Side | Size | Reason | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | closed | AAPL | sell | 0.0523315 sh at $344.34 = $18.02 | stopped, bought 2026-10-26 at $343.77 | $0.03 |
| 2026-10-30 | closed | CRM | sell | 0.0806361 sh at $232.93 = $18.78 | stopped, bought 2026-10-26 at $247.90 | $-1.21 |
| 2026-10-30 | closed | KO | sell | 0.216628 sh at $94.71 = $20.52 | stopped, bought 2026-10-26 at $92.28 | $0.53 |
| 2026-10-30 | closed | LLY | sell | 0.0155438 sh at $1,420.40 = $22.08 | stopped, bought 2026-10-26 at $1,286.04 | $2.09 |
| 2026-10-30 | closed | MSFT | sell | 0.0379758 sh at $522.64 = $19.85 | stopped, bought 2026-10-26 at $526.39 | $-0.14 |
| 2026-10-30 | filled | AAPL | sell | 0.0523315 sh at $344.34 = $18.02 | ||
| 2026-10-30 | filled | CRM | sell | 0.0806361 sh at $232.93 = $18.78 | ||
| 2026-10-30 | filled | KO | sell | 0.216628 sh at $94.71 = $20.52 | ||
| 2026-10-30 | filled | LLY | sell | 0.0155438 sh at $1,420.40 = $22.08 | ||
| 2026-10-30 | filled | MSFT | sell | 0.0379758 sh at $522.64 = $19.85 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | filled | CRM | buy | 0.0806361 sh at $247.90 = $19.99 | manual override | |
| 2026-10-26 | filled | MSFT | buy | 0.0379758 sh at $526.39 = $19.99 | manual override | |
| 2026-10-26 | filled | KO | buy | 0.216628 sh at $92.28 = $19.99 | manual override | |
| 2026-10-26 | filled | LLY | buy | 0.0155438 sh at $1,286.04 = $19.99 | manual override | |
| 2026-10-26 | filled | AAPL | buy | 0.0523315 sh at $343.77 = $17.99 | manual override | |
| 2026-10-26 | skipped | AAPL | buy | sector cap: notional 0.00 | ||
| 2026-10-26 | skipped | CRM | buy | not approved: approval no answer | ||
| 2026-10-26 | skipped | MSFT | buy | not approved: approval no answer | ||
| 2026-10-26 | skipped | KO | buy | not approved: approval no answer | ||
| 2026-10-26 | skipped | LLY | buy | not approved: approval no answer | ||
| 2026-10-26 | pick | CRM | buy | $20.00 | Strong medium-term trend with ret_60 at 0.378, ret_120 at 0.346 and dist_sma_200 at 0.256, plus rs_spy_60 of 0.341. RSI of 68.7 and dist_52w_high of -0.060 suggest it is near highs without being extremely overbought, though vol_20 of 0.325 is elevated. | |
| 2026-10-26 | pick | MSFT | buy | $20.00 | Steady uptrend with ret_60 at 0.165, ret_120 at 0.273 and dist_sma_200 at 0.205, with controlled vol_20 of 0.197 and atr_pct of 0.021. RSI of 49.6 is not overbought and dist_52w_high of -0.035 leaves room to run. | |
| 2026-10-26 | pick | KO | buy | $20.00 | Uptrend with ret_120 at 0.200, ret_60 at 0.054 and dist_sma_200 at 0.147, and low atr_pct of 0.018. RSI of 70.1 is somewhat elevated, and dist_52w_high of -0.028 is close to highs. | |
| 2026-10-26 | pick | LLY | buy | $20.00 | Positive momentum with ret_20 at 0.076, ret_60 at 0.104 and ret_120 at 0.320, and dist_sma_200 at 0.176. Vol_20 of 0.308 is higher than ideal and RSI of 70.0 is elevated, so conviction is limited. | |
| 2026-10-26 | pick | AAPL | buy | $18.00 | Low volatility trend with vol_20 at 0.165, atr_pct at 0.018 and dist_sma_200 at 0.182, plus ret_120 at 0.258. Short-term momentum is modest with ret_20 at 0.020 and RSI is high at 72.3. |
Picks are the 9:00 am picks; buys need a tap to be placed. P&L is realized on closed trades and at the last close on positions still held. Paper money.
Big paper account (trial 15)
Its own $100,000 Alpaca paper account runs trial 15: every trading day the brain picks the 5 stocks it is most sure of, sells yesterday's 5 at 9:45 am and buys today's at equal weight, 2% kept in cash. No SPY. A pick is a hit when it beats SPY from 9:45 am to 9:45 am the next session after costs; the owner's target is 75%. Kept apart from the $100 account above.
Picks for 2026-10-30: MU, XP, CRWV, NBIS, CRM.
No pick graded yet. The target is 75%.
Equity $99,787.19.
- Big paper -0.2%
- SPY -0.4%
Growth of 100 from 2026-10-28.
Trade log
| Date | What | Symbol | Side | Size | Reason | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | filled | MU | buy | 21.9422 sh at $891.35 = $19,558.27 | ||
| 2026-10-30 | filled | XP | buy | 1350.71 sh at $14.48 = $19,558.27 | ||
| 2026-10-30 | filled | CRWV | buy | 353.484 sh at $55.33 = $19,558.27 | ||
| 2026-10-30 | filled | NBIS | buy | 122.921 sh at $159.11 = $19,558.27 | ||
| 2026-10-30 | filled | CRM | buy | 83.8517 sh at $233.23 = $19,556.32 | ||
| 2026-10-30 | pick | MU | buy | $19,558.28 | conviction 0.533, news tone -0.96, articles 1, surprise -2.2, filing tone +0.00, ripple +0.00, last day -5.0% | |
| 2026-10-30 | pick | XP | buy | $19,558.28 | conviction 0.529, news tone -0.86, articles 1, surprise -1.9, filing tone +0.00, ripple +0.00, last day -6.5% | |
| 2026-10-30 | pick | CRWV | buy | $19,558.28 | conviction 0.517, news tone +0.00, articles 0, surprise +0.0, filing tone +0.00, ripple +0.21, last day -5.0% | |
| 2026-10-30 | pick | NBIS | buy | $19,558.28 | conviction 0.514, news tone +0.60, articles 1, surprise +0.7, filing tone +0.00, ripple +0.00, last day -5.7% | |
| 2026-10-30 | pick | CRM | buy | $19,558.28 | conviction 0.512, news tone +0.86, articles 1, surprise +1.3, filing tone +0.00, ripple +0.00, last day -4.6% |
Picks are the 9:00 am picks, auto-approved. P&L is realized on closed trades and at the last close on positions still held. Paper money.
Shadow scoreboard
No locked morning graded yet. Each 9:00 am picks locks the list it scored; it is graded after 9:45 am the session after.
Every stock the big account's news brain scores each morning is locked before the 9:30 open, buys or not, and graded the next morning: in at 9:45 am, out at 9:45 am a session later, against SPY over the same span, the trades' own rule. A hit beat SPY after costs. Shadow models score the same stocks the same morning and are locked and graded the same way, but never trade. Each column keeps its own totals. Backfilled days, scored after the fact, are kept apart and never counted in the locked numbers.
Last 20 decisions
2026-10-290 orders
strategy agents | bull regime | 5 candidates
No trades planned.
Held back by the risk engine
- buy CVX: max positions, limit 5
- buy XOM: max positions, limit 5
- buy AMD: max positions, limit 5
- buy V: max positions, limit 5
- buy MA: max positions, limit 5
2026-10-280 orders
strategy agents | bull regime | 5 candidates
No trades planned.
Held back by the risk engine
- buy CVX: max positions, limit 5
- buy AMD: max positions, limit 5
- buy XOM: max positions, limit 5
- buy V: max positions, limit 5
- buy JNJ: max positions, limit 5
2026-10-270 orders
strategy agents | bull regime | 5 candidates
No trades planned.
Held back by the risk engine
- buy AMD: max positions, limit 5
- buy CVX: max positions, limit 5
- buy XOM: max positions, limit 5
- buy V: max positions, limit 5
- buy MA: max positions, limit 5
2026-10-260 orders
strategy agents | bull regime | 5 candidates | 1 filtered out
No trades planned.
Held back by the risk engine
- buy CVX: max positions, limit 5
- buy V: max positions, limit 5
- buy MA: max positions, limit 5
- buy PG: max positions, limit 5
2026-10-235 orders
strategy agents | bull regime | 5 candidates
- BUY CRM $20.00 entryStrong medium-term trend with ret_60 at 0.378, ret_120 at 0.346 and dist_sma_200 at 0.256, plus rs_spy_60 of 0.341. RSI of 68.7 and dist_52w_high of -0.060 suggest it is near highs without being extremely overbought, though vol_20 of 0.325 is elevated.
- BUY MSFT $20.00 entrySteady uptrend with ret_60 at 0.165, ret_120 at 0.273 and dist_sma_200 at 0.205, with controlled vol_20 of 0.197 and atr_pct of 0.021. RSI of 49.6 is not overbought and dist_52w_high of -0.035 leaves room to run.
- BUY KO $20.00 entryUptrend with ret_120 at 0.200, ret_60 at 0.054 and dist_sma_200 at 0.147, and low atr_pct of 0.018. RSI of 70.1 is somewhat elevated, and dist_52w_high of -0.028 is close to highs.
- BUY LLY $20.00 entryPositive momentum with ret_20 at 0.076, ret_60 at 0.104 and ret_120 at 0.320, and dist_sma_200 at 0.176. Vol_20 of 0.308 is higher than ideal and RSI of 70.0 is elevated, so conviction is limited.
- BUY AAPL $18.00 entryLow volatility trend with vol_20 at 0.165, atr_pct at 0.018 and dist_sma_200 at 0.182, plus ret_120 at 0.258. Short-term momentum is modest with ret_20 at 0.020 and RSI is high at 72.3.
Model calibration
Report 20261024T222929-model, model logistic, 21 session horizon. ECE 0.022, Brier 0.250, AUC 0.494. Walk-forward did not pass.
On the diagonal means the probabilities are honest.